by Anura Guruge
on February 24, 2023
When he was created a cardinal in August 2022 I thought he was (at 71) a tad too young to be papabile. I still think that he is a couple of years too young, BUT for this one possibility — & that is IF Pope Francis resigns. While I do not want him to resign & there are some who are adamant that Francis has too much of an ego & AN AGENDA to entertain resignation, I am reluctant to totally rule it out. While it is no secret that Francis loves being pope, I also think (possibly wrongly) that he is getting increasingly frustrated by having to constantly appear in public looking physically enfeebled. I think that also plays to his ego. He doesn’t want to be remembered as this doddering, wheelchair bound pope.
IF Francis resigns, that changes the age dynamics as to the next pope. Why? Because we would now have had two popes, in succession, that resigned. While, two DOES NOT make a trend, it does leave the door much more open (& amenable) to more future resignations. So, in theory, one doesn’t have to worry about a new young pope ruling for the next 25 years. Instead, one now has the possibility that the next pope MIGHT also opt to resign — after say 15-years — once they are in their early 80s. That is what will change IF Francis resigns — the acceptability of a younger pope WITH the hope that he will not cling onto power until the bitter end decades down the road. While capitulations (i.e., a formal agreement by a papabile to undertake certain obligations (in this case resignation after x years)) are forbidden, I am sure that we are all adult enough to appreciate that ‘informal’ promises are made by those seeking this much sought after office.
Cardinal Arthur Roche, as my 2nd image shows, has been making quite a bit of news of late. While traditionalists, especially the U.S. Catholics, may not like or agree with what he is saying & doing, he definitely appears to be Francis’ new enforcer. That could mean that he could — & should — get the vote from the Francis wing of the cardinal electors. Yes, it is true that they still don’t have the 2/3 majority to shoehorn in the next pope. But, if Roche can get most of the Francis vote he will have some footing to mount a push towards soliciting others to come around.
I also think that the next pope will be a curialist. And Roche has been one for over 10 years now. Plus, he is OLDER than Tagle. So, I am NOT saying that Roche will be the next pope. Far from that. I am just pointing out that IF (& only IF) Francis resigns we should not overlook Roche as a potential papabile. OK? Got that?
I agree. Roche may be papabile now because he seems to be a (the?) driving force behind “sticking it to the TLM Catholics” going on right now in this pontificate. With all the extra visibility that implies. He may well now be the darling of latter-day St. Gallen Mafia types who are shuffling to get their Agenda accomplished in the time that Francis has left.
But I also see the other side of this. Many prelates do not like this current direction–at all–and this may well undermine whatever clout Roche has built up once they’re in the Sistine for the next conclave.
Yes, Mark, we are once again in violent agreement. Yes, Roche will have opponents too. I can’t get a read of how much elector support Francis commands. I know that he hasn’t got the 2/3rd as yet.
Given that YOU are much more abreast of matters Vatican, what are YOU seeing as promising papabili. I am all at sea. I just can’t see any jumping out as all the old suspects continue to get old & near ‘retirement’ age.
Thanks. All the best. Cheers, Anura
My take is that they’re all over the place. I don’t see any “clear frontrunners” here. I’m sure Roche and Tagle are among those favored by the current pope as his eventually successor, but if that translates to votes, I’m not seeing it. Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishop’s Conference–and probably just as wishy-washy on doctrinal matters–is another. As most people would agree I think, the election will come down to those who like the current direction (or lack thereof) of the current papacy and those who find it a disaster (to one degree or another). As far as who are the papabiles in the latter group, it’s anyone’s guess I think.
Agreed, again. Hmmm, Zuppi. Hadn’t given him much thought. I should.
Don’t think Tagle will be NEXT pope — but, possible the next after the next.
I am UPDATING my magic elector Excel. These days I am BAD at keeping it current. So, I have to then go back, check it & update it. Invariably I find ‘mistakes’ in the Cardinals website. On Sunday I got that sorted out. SMILE.
Interesting but frustrating stuff. All the best. Cheers. Anura
As for Roche: The only English cardinals who would ever have been considered as papal candidates were Reginald Pole in the 16th century and George Basil Hume in the 20th century.
However, it should not be overlooked that these two were high profile representatives of the College of Cardinals. I have certain doubts that Roche has already reached this level.
Very interesting…So you think the next Pope could come from the Curia again ? I already have a candidate – Luis Antonio Tagle! ;). I am well aware of your reservation on the age issue, the only question is how much this criterion will matter in the next conclave.
A few days after the consistory last August, Cardinal Schönborn spoke on Radio Vatican about various impressions and conversations with his fellow cardinals. On that occasion he reported that the overwhelming number of electors considered both the question of the origin of the next Pope and his age of secondary importance.
You know as well as I do that the upheaval in the College of Cardinals that has taken place over the last ten years should not be underestimated. As long as Francis is Pope, this development will continue – so I am quite sure that this year will see another consistory with the usual surprises.
Wow. It never even occurred to me that Francis had the strength, physical or mental, to convene another consistory. IF he does so he could certainly cook the book. Create another 30 cardinals. While he is at it change the majority to just 51%. He has the POWER to do so. He is GOD on Earth. Emperor of the Catholic Church. No answerable to any authority of Earth. He should go for it. Who can oppose him? Please provide names? I am sure Francis would like to know them. Cheers. Smile.