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The legality and ‘properness’ of this French verdict means didly.
This is getting publicity and it hurts his image, reputation & credibility.
Two key factors also at play here. TOO CLOSE to the conclave & just as he is turning 80.
It is conceivable that he might have been able to overcome this setback IF it had happened 4 years ago.
France is a MAJOR Catholic country and we cannot have a new pope who has been FINED by a French court.
This is ALSO a major blow to I — though I appreciate that none of you care about that.
Ouellet was one of my TOP papabili picks (just like he had been in 2011).
Now I had to go and redo the WHOLE list.
But, it is good for another of my favorites, U.S. Cardinal Wilton Gregory. He is now at #3! Wow. O’Malley is another favorite.
I do feel bad for Ouellet. He always seemed to be so much in control. Getting involved in this seems like a mistake. I can’t say I understand all the nuances, but it would appear that he was outside of his jurisdiction.
He can come across as a sensible, pragmatic, CENTRALIST willing to entertain some progressive reform. In this homily he does just that. Bravo. I am chuffed. Way to go Gregory. You are going to do me proud.
That Donald Trump will indeed become the Next U.S. President in January 2025 is what is tilting the odds in favor of a U.S. Pope.
What used to be the ‘White House East‘ issue has now been turned upside down on its head. The world is NOT going to be scared that the U.S. will wield too power, they are already concerned that the U.S. will become cease to have a ‘Worldview’. The U.S., under Trump, will become very (maybe ultra) isolationist.
Trump will have no time or respect for a WEAK Pope. Can you see Trump with Tagle? I already have a list of nicknames that Trump will use to describe Tagle if he was to become Pope and say ONE WORD against Trump, his policies or the U.S.
Trump will TOLERATE a U.S. Pope — even IF the new pope is NOT white.
Trump is SMART, v. smart. He will NOT alienate his BASE. He will play nice with a U.S. pope.
The savvy electors (and there are SOME) will know this.
Right now, the Americas have 35 electors. Europe 54. Oceania 3. That is 92. A U.S. pope should be able to get at least 70% of these votes, i.e., 64. That is 22. SHORT of the required 2/3 majority. Africa & Asia have 37 votes. So, a U.S. pope will need 22 of these votes.
But, here is what will happen. MOMENTUM. O’Malley or Gregory will garner momentum. I feel more and more confident.
I could be wrong. I could be DEAD wrong. But, you can see how and what I am THINKING.
But, he could quite easily leapfrog to the TOP. He has AGE on his side. Goldilocks. Not too old. Not too young. SAME AGE as Pope Francis when he was elected in 2013.
We, the Americans, should mount a campaign to get him elected. I am going to do what little I can.
Ironically, one of his competitors is Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley, the Archbishop of Boston. O’Malley, however, is 3-years older. He will be 80 this June. But, he is white — albeit bearded (which is a slight negative).
Gregory will NOT be the first black pope (from what we know). There has been, in the early days, at least one pope from Africa. We, however, don’t know how dark he was. But, as with Obama, Gregory’s color could be a bonus.
So, come on, let’s all root for an American Pope — Wilton Gregory.
Click to ENLARGE. The ‘White House East’ objection. Click here for the original post.
My LIST. My choices. My criteria.
You do not have to agree. That is perfectly fine by me. I respect your opinion (even if I think you may be wrong).
I have given this more thought than most of you appreciate.
Wilton Gregory can pull together quite the coalition — support from many geographies. He is not a hardliner. His age, at 77, is Goldilocks — not too old, not too young.
I am COMFORTABLE with him at #4 in MY LIST.
It will be SO NEAT IF he keeps his name and opts to be ‘Gregory XVII‘.
Well, John F. Kennedy, in 1961, overcame the first hurdle, i.e., a Catholic as U.S. President. We have now had a second, the current president ‘Joe Biden‘. So, that part of the problem, ‘Western Vatican’, is no longer a concern.
And now in 2024 the World (and with that many of the Cardinal Elector (Kenya’s shameless ‘John (Idi) Njue‘ always the exception) appreciates that U.S. is not the absolute Superpower it was once seen as being. Ukraine, Gaza, NATO, etc. have illustrated that there is theory and practice. Plus, there is also now China and to a lesser extent India. A U.S. Pope will not be seen as adding EXTRA clout to the power wielded by the U.S.
When I was updating my Cardinal Elector spreadsheet his name & credentials jumped out at me. Papal Nuncio to the (ever so important) U.S. since 2016. 7-years. That for a nuncio is a fair chunk of time. As far as I can see he hasn’t put a foot wrong, either in the U.S. or in Rome, during that time. That is good. He also has had stints in Brazil, Cuba and Africa. Plus the Holy See representative to the U.N. SO, it would appear that he might be able to cobble together votes from France, U.S., Brazil, Cuba, Africa and the curia.
He is also not too old or too young! He will be 78 in January 2024. That was the age that Benedict XVI was elected in 2005. Francis was 76.2 & John XXIII was 76.9. So, he can’t be ruled out as being too old.
Think about it. Mull it over. Do some research. Let me know.
When he was created a cardinal in August 2022 I thought he was (at 71) a tad too young to be papabile. I still think that he is a couple of years too young, BUT for this one possibility — & that is IF Pope Francis resigns. While I do not want him to resign & there are some who are adamant that Francis has too much of an ego & AN AGENDA to entertain resignation, I am reluctant to totally rule it out. While it is no secret that Francis loves being pope, I also think (possibly wrongly) that he is getting increasingly frustrated by having to constantly appear in public looking physically enfeebled. I think that also plays to his ego. He doesn’t want to be remembered as this doddering, wheelchair bound pope.
IF Francis resigns, that changes the age dynamics as to the next pope. Why? Because we would now have had two popes, in succession, that resigned. While, two DOES NOT make a trend, it does leave the door much more open (& amenable) to more future resignations. So, in theory, one doesn’t have to worry about a new young pope ruling for the next 25 years. Instead, one now has the possibility that the next pope MIGHT also opt to resign — after say 15-years — once they are in their early 80s. That is what will change IF Francis resigns — the acceptability of a younger pope WITH the hope that he will not cling onto power until the bitter end decades down the road. While capitulations (i.e., a formal agreement by a papabile to undertake certain obligations (in this case resignation after x years)) are forbidden, I am sure that we are all adult enough to appreciate that ‘informal’ promises are made by those seeking this much sought after office.
Cardinal Arthur Roche, as my 2nd image shows, has been making quite a bit of news of late. While traditionalists, especially the U.S. Catholics, may not like or agree with what he is saying & doing, he definitely appears to be Francis’ new enforcer. That could mean that he could — & should — get the vote from the Francis wing of the cardinal electors. Yes, it is true that they still don’t have the 2/3 majority to shoehorn in the next pope. But, if Roche can get most of the Francis vote he will have some footing to mount a push towards soliciting others to come around.
I also think that the next pope will be a curialist. And Roche has been one for over 10 years now. Plus, he is OLDER than Tagle. So, I am NOT saying that Roche will be the next pope. Far from that. I am just pointing out that IF (& only IF) Francis resigns we should not overlook Roche as a potential papabile. OK? Got that?
For once, I am slightly skeptical. With all other Catholic clerics, including the ‘acquitted’ George Pell, I had no doubts; they were all guilty as accused & there are tons of others that never got accused or caught.
But, with Marc Ouellet, I, surprisingly, appear to be siding with the pope & Vatican! I have a hunch that this looks like a ‘put of job’ to harm the Vatican, the curia, the pope & obliterate Ouellet’s papabile prospects. By taking down Ouellet, another from the “ol’ guard” bites the dust. This increases the chance of a Francis acolyte becoming the next pope. At this rate, against all odds, baby-faced & still remarkably young (i.e., 65), Luis Antonio Tagle really could be the next pope! Sacré bleu.
I will also confess, that I was RELIEVED that Ouellet had NOT been accused of having his way with young boys. He has not been accused, at least as yet, of committing any overt sexual acts per se. His since, to date, appear to consist of unwelcome groping, pawing, kissing, etc. Not good — & as a father of three daughters, two still quite young, this does NOT make me happy, BUT it is not as bad as rape, oral sex or exposure. Ouellet basically is being accused of being yet another dirty old man!
I am sure events will unfold rapidly over the next few days. Stay tuned. Whatever happens, I am pretty sure that Ouellet as of now is NOT papabile & will never be.
Click to ENLARGE. I dashed off a quick Excel to help me get the picture.
There is nothing that says that tenure as a cardinal matters when it comes to being elected the next pope.
Achille Ratti, who went on to become Pius XI, is a good (& relatively recent) example. He was made a cardinal in the LAST of Benedict XV’s 5 cardinal creating consistories. 8 months later he was pope. Good Pope John XXIII was also created at the last consistory of the prior pope — but since that was Pius XII things get a bit murky. Pius XII had an aversion to creating cardinals.
Well, I had a look at the batch of 16 new cardinal designates.
Many are too YOUNG & I really doubt whether the next pope will be from ‘East Timor’.
A British pope is unlikely — though we have had one.
