by Anura Guruge
on May 18, 2022
By NO MEANS a given. The probability is increasing.
Why?
Ironic. The influence of the U.S., the ‘Western White House‘, is diminishing. A U.S. pope will not be seeing as wielding as much power as they might have done even just a few years ago. A sad fact.
Plus, the U.S. is becoming the bastion of conservative Catholicism. And then there is also the money. U.S. interests by far (by far) pour more money into ‘grooming’ potential popes than any other bloc. Until now they couldn’t — & they didn’t — squander any of that on U.S. candidates. But, that is changing.
NO, the next pope certainly will NOT be Burke or Dolan. That is a given.
But, Sean Patrick stands a decent chance. The ONE major stumbling block is his BEARD! Yes, if not for his beard his chances would be better. And NO, he will NOT agree to shave.
So, think about it. Mull it over. Not a given. Just a shift in the fundamental dynamics.
Just not buying it. Despite the current pope’s lack of understanding and/or contempt for the American church, I think the odds of one of the 9 American cardinals are no better than they were before 2013. Sure, despite the fact that the more conservative elements of the hierarchy have been able to “rally the base”, and all the noise the pundits blast on YouTube, it has to be remembered that Cupich still effectively pulls the strings in the USCCB, and the Jesuit-led intelligentsia in the college campuses (Villanova, Notre Dame, etc.) still favor a liberal agenda.
O’Malley? He’s kind of a compromise between the two sides, I guess…but I don’t think the Cardinals as a whole want an American pope, no matter what, and I haven’t seen anything lately to contradict that.
Oh, and it’s about time we have a bearded pope again. It’s been 322 years since Innocent XII died, and he was the last one with facial hair. đ
While maybe O’Malley is the most papabile of the Americans, that’s not saying much. I very seriously doubt that he has a snowball’s chance in Hell of getting elected.
If he does, my bet is that he’ll take the name John Paul III. đ
Or maybe Pope Patrick (holding to my theory that the Cardinals who are indebted to Francis–though O’Malley isn’t one of them–will likewise go for a previously-unused name. Pope Michael, Pope Matthew, Pope Luke…etc.).
Mark, YOU of ALL people know how hard it was for me to make this 180 degree turn. You know that I had maintained for over 12-years, NO U.S. pope.
You (as per your knack) hit the nail smack in the head in para. 1. COMPROMISE. While I have changed my mind re. U.S., I am adamant on my age criteria. So, I have been STARING at the potential list. It is SLIM picking.
Yes, of course, Ouellet, Comastri, Schonborn etc.
O’Malley has PAID HIS DUES.
Mark, I have given the facial hair thing a lot of thought during my daily 3 hours of ambling.
Non sequitur. Precedents no longer matter! He hadn’t had a pope resign in (what was it) 640 years. We had never had a Jesuit pope.
Popes HAD beards.
IF a cardinal can have a beard, it is disingenuous to say a pope can’t. That does not compute EVEN for Catholics.
Yes, a U.S. pope is still a stretch, BUT I no longer totally rule it out.
Pax. SMILE.
We’ll see how it all plays out, of course… đ
And the sands keep shifting with each new papal kerfuffle that comes from Francis and his flunkies..
We should get the list of new cardinals in the next 48 hours. That will change the dynamics too.
Did you see that there is a Jesuit priest ADVOCATING that Francis should do away with the two-thirds majority! I tweeted him & asked him if he wants to take a bet.
WE need to THRASH out this beard issue. Where do YOU stand & why? If a cardinal can have a beard why can’t a pope. Plus, plenty of popes had them!
Have a great holiday weekend. Cheers.
Only an African, preferably Kenyan, will do. The plurality, if not the majority, of the martyrs under Rome were from Africa. It is the only way to save Catholicism.
Please refer to MY REPLY to the ‘Mark61t’ comment ‘above’ (given it is later & refers to yours). Thanks. OK?
I’m inclined to agree with Jonas here. I’ve been wanting to see an African pope since at least Gantin. It would send a great message to the Europeans (who I STRONGLY suspect will engineer–or try to–“one of their own” to be the next pope. Höllerich seems to be the current frontrunner as papabile) that they don’t get the own way, all of the time.
While O’Malley continues to be, IMHO, the frontrunner among the Americans, that’s kind of like saying his chances have gone up from 0.5% to 0.75%. đ
Greetings. You, my friend, as well as ‘Jonas’ (below) could be outliers. As you (better than most) I could be WRONG. I am always aware of that. That said, here is my take. There is a BETTER chance that the Next Pope will be female rather than black! Actually, I will go as far as saying non-white because IMHO he/she will not be brown, tanned, or anything other than pale.
Jonas’ comment got me thinking. He could be right BUT I am not sure. The pre-Constantine martyrs … Yes, we had at least 2 African popes. But martyrs. How many Africans in ROME were Christians? Many would have been slaves. I don’t think most of the slaves were allowed to profess a religion. Hhhhmmm.
Lot to think about.
BUT we are jumping the GUN.
AS YOU KNOW, Francis is planning to visit home in 2024. So, he plans to be around till well into next year.
I guess he is LOOKING forward to the Nov. 2024 election when he can ROOT for his buddy Donald.
All the best. Thanks.
Anura
Ha! Yeh, I was just saying that I’d like to see it, that it would be a good kick-in-the-pants that the hierarchy needs. But do I think there is much chance of an African being elected next conclave? No, sadly not much. Right up there with O’Malley methinks.
Almost certainly the next pope will be–again, IMHO–be European. I think the “South American experiment” (that is, anyone from outside the shores of Europa) won’t be revisited any time soon.
But I can hope. đ
I think we are BACK in sync AGAIN. Timing, as always, is interesting.
With Francis you can never be sure. Was he just KIDDING about going to Argentina in 2024? Hhhmmm.
Bit distracted right now. Doing a TON of interesting research on Christmas! Why hadn’t I thought of this before. Christmas … so many facets.
Keep in touch. Cheers, Anura
Looks like Ouellet is has now retired, and GĂ€nswein is moving out of the Vatican (who can blame him?!). Pretty sure he ain’t getting a red hat any time soon (in this pontificate anyway).
Retired but still under 80. As for Ganswein — who is to blame? Ganswein or the pope. Either way he is OUT. I am surprised he didn’t unearth a letter from B16 to say that he had been made a cardinal in pectore by B16 on Feb. 28, 2013.
Retired but still under 80. As for Ganswein — who is to blame? Ganswein or the pope. Either way he is OUT. I am surprised he didn’t unearth a letter from B16 to say that he had been made a cardinal in pectore by B16 on Feb. 28, 2013.
My opinions havenât changed.
Cupich still will play Kingmaker in Next Conclave, and/or the âCongressional Whipâ of at least the American cardinals of a Modernist bentâŠpressuring them to vote the way he wants them to.
OâMalley is still the âmost likelyâ of the Americans, but (also again) thatâs not saying much.
Sandri? Nope.
I still strongly suspect that the Europeans, for all their individual differences in manner, style, and convictions, are âover it!â in terms of supporting a non-European candidate. Theyâll elect one of their own, and only among those in-conclave. No non-voting cardinals, and no non-Cardinals either. Itâs just not going to happen.
Sure, the North Americans and the cardinals from Asia, Oceania, or Africa might have a chance in some future conclave. But not the next one. Unfortunately.
As ever, with you, interesting, interesting & interesting.
The Europeans, at BEST, at BEST, only have 42% of the vote. So, they will need help from others.
AGREED. Sandri, NO.
I am having 2nd thoughts about O’Malley.
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Smile. So will he Gregory XVII or opt to be Joseph? SMILE.
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Crazy busy. Thanks.