What I have done is added ‘who created whom‘ data. I like to have that. I was rather surprised to find that Salvador did NOT provide these numbers on a regular or consistent basis. Given all the data I have, & my still somewhat ‘OK’ numeracy, it wasn’t that difficult to interpolate back to January 1, 2023. From that point it was just grunt work. Some of you will find this data interesting & useful. It shows how the influence of the 3 popes ebbs and flows.
This is still a work in progress. Unlike dear Salvador I have other interests, other projects, other commitments …. But, please give me time. I will slowly improve on what we have. IF you can HELP, please let me know. Thanks.
While I have NO intention of trying to emulate ALL that dear Salvador did, I do want to try and maintain an ACCURATE record of the CHANGES to the College.
Salvador’s website will EVER remain good for everything UP TO 2023.
What I will do is maintain a list (in the form of one of my famed ‘magic’ Excel spreadsheets) of all the changes — i.e., creations, deaths, aging outs & expulsions — as of Jan. 1, 2023. So, this is the start.
The spreadsheet is done. It has some HIDDEN columns. Plus, I plan to add a few more. No point maintaining a magic Guruge spreadsheet IF I don’t milk as much data as I can. I will calculate days between changes, days between deaths, obituary demographic, etc.
This is still a work in progress. Unlike dear Salvador I have other interests, other projects, other commitments …. But, please give me time. I will slowly improve on what we have. IF you can HELP, please let me know. Thanks.
This is in memory of my friend Salvador.
I dedicated my 2020, encyclopedic, 518-page ‘The Conclave‘ book to Salvador.
While I have NO intention of trying to emulate ALL that dear Salvador did, I do want to try and maintain an ACCURATE record of the CHANGES to the College.
Salvador’s website will EVER remain good for everything UP TO 2023.
What I will do is maintain a list (in the form of one of my famed ‘magic’ Excel spreadsheets) of all the changes — i.e., creations, deaths, aging outs & expulsions — as of Jan. 1, 2023. So, this is the start.
The spreadsheet is done. It has some HIDDEN columns. Plus, I plan to add a few more. No point maintaining a magic Guruge spreadsheet IF I don’t milk as much data as I can. I will calculate days between changes, days between deaths, obituary demographic, etc.
I have ALREADY created a Webpage for MY ‘College of Cardinals’. More on that later. This is but a start. SMILE.
This is in memory of my friend Salvador.
I dedicated my 2020, encyclopedic, 518-page ‘The Conclave‘ book to Salvador.
During this time I have made numerous attempts to directly contact Salvador (via phone & e-mail) and to get an update on him. I have failed, miserably. I fear the worst. I check the local papers. Nothing that I can find. IF you know something please let me know.
By now the Website is out-of-date when it comes to what has happened in the last 11 months.
There is NO way I can update it.
But, as YOU know I am providing comprehensive Cardinal Elector demographics — with detail not even available on the Website. So, that helps (& is a consolation).
I needed to look up some necrology stuff. Of course, I couldn’t, any longer, rely on Salvador’s list. Yes, both ‘gcatholic’ & ‘catholic hierarchy’ have necrology lists — but they are NOT restricted just to cardinals. I just want the cardinals. Truth be known, I just want the cardinal electors.
So, starting today I will maintain a CARDINAL OBITUARY list. This is the start. I will put the 21st century data, from Salvador, into a spreadsheet & then BUILD upon that. OK?
Click to ENLARGE. The 8 who will age out next — till end of 2024.
Two cardinal electors, BOTH Francis creations, will age-out by April 20, 2024 — one (from Laos) on April 8 & the other (from Spain) on April 19.
So, this is what the elector demographics will look like as of April 20, 2024.
Then we don’t have any aging out till June 8, 2024.
That the two who aged out are Francis creations means that only 72.4% of the electorate was created by Francis. That is NOT enough to ensure that the next pope will be a Francis acolyte. He needs to hold another cardinal creating consistory SOON.
Just a note. A very few cardinals have died of late (& those mostly non-electors). Keep that in mind since this will change the demographics & I will, of course, update the numbers.
That Donald Trump will indeed become the Next U.S. President in January 2025 is what is tilting the odds in favor of a U.S. Pope.
What used to be the ‘White House East‘ issue has now been turned upside down on its head. The world is NOT going to be scared that the U.S. will wield too power, they are already concerned that the U.S. will become cease to have a ‘Worldview’. The U.S., under Trump, will become very (maybe ultra) isolationist.
Trump will have no time or respect for a WEAK Pope. Can you see Trump with Tagle? I already have a list of nicknames that Trump will use to describe Tagle if he was to become Pope and say ONE WORD against Trump, his policies or the U.S.
Trump will TOLERATE a U.S. Pope — even IF the new pope is NOT white.
Trump is SMART, v. smart. He will NOT alienate his BASE. He will play nice with a U.S. pope.
The savvy electors (and there are SOME) will know this.
Right now, the Americas have 35 electors. Europe 54. Oceania 3. That is 92. A U.S. pope should be able to get at least 70% of these votes, i.e., 64. That is 22. SHORT of the required 2/3 majority. Africa & Asia have 37 votes. So, a U.S. pope will need 22 of these votes.
But, here is what will happen. MOMENTUM. O’Malley or Gregory will garner momentum. I feel more and more confident.
I could be wrong. I could be DEAD wrong. But, you can see how and what I am THINKING.
But, he could quite easily leapfrog to the TOP. He has AGE on his side. Goldilocks. Not too old. Not too young. SAME AGE as Pope Francis when he was elected in 2013.
We, the Americans, should mount a campaign to get him elected. I am going to do what little I can.
Ironically, one of his competitors is Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley, the Archbishop of Boston. O’Malley, however, is 3-years older. He will be 80 this June. But, he is white — albeit bearded (which is a slight negative).
Gregory will NOT be the first black pope (from what we know). There has been, in the early days, at least one pope from Africa. We, however, don’t know how dark he was. But, as with Obama, Gregory’s color could be a bonus.
So, come on, let’s all root for an American Pope — Wilton Gregory.
Click to ENLARGE. The ‘White House East’ objection. Click here for the original post.
My LIST. My choices. My criteria.
You do not have to agree. That is perfectly fine by me. I respect your opinion (even if I think you may be wrong).
I have given this more thought than most of you appreciate.
Wilton Gregory can pull together quite the coalition — support from many geographies. He is not a hardliner. His age, at 77, is Goldilocks — not too old, not too young.
I am COMFORTABLE with him at #4 in MY LIST.
It will be SO NEAT IF he keeps his name and opts to be ‘Gregory XVII‘.
Well, John F. Kennedy, in 1961, overcame the first hurdle, i.e., a Catholic as U.S. President. We have now had a second, the current president ‘Joe Biden‘. So, that part of the problem, ‘Western Vatican’, is no longer a concern.
And now in 2024 the World (and with that many of the Cardinal Elector (Kenya’s shameless ‘John (Idi) Njue‘ always the exception) appreciates that U.S. is not the absolute Superpower it was once seen as being. Ukraine, Gaza, NATO, etc. have illustrated that there is theory and practice. Plus, there is also now China and to a lesser extent India. A U.S. Pope will not be seen as adding EXTRA clout to the power wielded by the U.S.
Click image to access the original at ‘The Pillar‘.
‘Mark G.‘, a trusted friend and invaluable, near two decade collaborator, send me the link to the above ‘The Pillar‘ article a few minutes ago.
It shook me to the core.
OK. Let’s get it straight. This is a HOPE. A wet dream. It is not a leak.
It is clickbait.
It is STUPID.
It has NO MERIT.
That it will prevent the electors from making knee-jerk reactions is invalid — flawed assumption.
Once in conclave the electors are totally shielded from what folks are saying or agitating outside. That is the whole point of getting them IN CONCLAVE. Get them away from distractions.
2 rounds of balloting a day was introduced in 1621.
4 round a day in 1904.
The optional 1 round on Day 1 in 1986.
We now want to go back to what it was pre-1621. Beyond STUPID. Regressive. A wet-dream.
As some of you may have worked out from some of my recent posts (e.g., this & that) I am doing work on the ‘2024 conclave’. SMILE.
I have actually come to TWO solid conclusions:
1/ The 2024 conclave, like the last 4, will also be a QUICK, SHORT conclave. It will most likely be done within 3 days — at most 4. It will NOT go to ‘run-off‘. It will not even make it to the first ‘time-out‘ after the 4th day. WHY: Both camps know that they do NOT have the votes to get one of their hardliners elected. Each side has more than enough votes to continually BLOCK a hardliner. Quite a few of the electors are quite savvy. They know have already WHIPPED the votes. So, it has to be a COMPROMISE candidate that will not get blocked. They are going AGREE beforehand, possibly even ahead of the sede vacante, as to a very SHORTLIST of 4 to 5 candidates. {Laws be damned. We know that the laws were flagrantly violated by the ‘St. Gallen Group‘, per their own admission, in 2005 & 2013.} They will whittle this down when they are all in Rome. There are all not adversaries at each other’s throats. There will be go betweens.
2/ Very good chance that the Next Pope will be OLD, close to 80, if not even slightly older. Nothing that over 80 cardinals are ineligible. Nothing that says only those in conclave can be elected. For that matter nothing that says that the pope elect as to be a cardinal. These electors, in particular, are USED to over 80 popes! Think about it. None of them has served a pope who did NOT live past 80. They have served an over 80 pope for 7 years. Think about.
