by Anura Guruge
on March 1, 2024
‘Mark G.‘, a trusted friend and invaluable, near two decade collaborator, send me the link to the above ‘The Pillar‘ article a few minutes ago.
It shook me to the core.
OK. Let’s get it straight. This is a HOPE. A wet dream. It is not a leak.
It is clickbait.
It is STUPID.
It has NO MERIT.
That it will prevent the electors from making knee-jerk reactions is invalid — flawed assumption.
Once in conclave the electors are totally shielded from what folks are saying or agitating outside. That is the whole point of getting them IN CONCLAVE. Get them away from distractions.
2 rounds of balloting a day was introduced in 1621.
4 round a day in 1904.
The optional 1 round on Day 1 in 1986.
We now want to go back to what it was pre-1621.
Beyond STUPID. Regressive. A wet-dream.
As some of you may have worked out from some of my recent posts (e.g., this & that) I am doing work on the ‘2024 conclave’. SMILE.
I have actually come to TWO solid conclusions:
1/ The 2024 conclave, like the last 4, will also be a QUICK, SHORT conclave. It will most likely be done within 3 days — at most 4. It will NOT go to ‘run-off‘. It will not even make it to the first ‘time-out‘ after the 4th day.
WHY: Both camps know that they do NOT have the votes to get one of their hardliners elected. Each side has more than enough votes to continually BLOCK a hardliner. Quite a few of the electors are quite savvy. They know have already WHIPPED the votes. So, it has to be a COMPROMISE candidate that will not get blocked. They are going AGREE beforehand, possibly even ahead of the sede vacante, as to a very SHORTLIST of 4 to 5 candidates. {Laws be damned. We know that the laws were flagrantly violated by the ‘St. Gallen Group‘, per their own admission, in 2005 & 2013.} They will whittle this down when they are all in Rome. There are all not adversaries at each other’s throats. There will be go betweens.
2/ Very good chance that the Next Pope will be OLD, close to 80, if not even slightly older. Nothing that over 80 cardinals are ineligible. Nothing that says only those in conclave can be elected. For that matter nothing that says that the pope elect as to be a cardinal. These electors, in particular, are USED to over 80 popes! Think about it. None of them has served a pope who did NOT live past 80. They have served an over 80 pope for 7 years. Think about.
THINK. THINK. THINK.
I am glad that you appear to be accepting the possibility of a compromise candidate rather than Tagle. SMILE.
So, where do you stand on MY IDEA that the pope could be close to 80 or even lightly above. [And NO, I do not consider ‘Idi’ papabile though he, no doubts, thinks so.]
Can we PLEASE play a simple, SMALL GAME. Just ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. Can we do that:
1/ Ouellet?
2/ O’Malley?
3/ Christoph?
4/ Farrell?
5/ Filoni?
6/ Sandri?
7/ Comastri?
Thank YOU. I appreciate the Yes/No.
Another consistory, in 2024, CAN (& will) change everything. The pope should have one SOON. Sooner the better. IF he has one YOUR WISH could come true — Tagle as Pope.
*****
YES/NO
Today 129 electors — so majority is 86.
Francis has created 94 BUT at least 12 (from my assiduous counting) will NOT vote for a progressive. So, YOU are down to 82. This could go down further. The U.S. Catholics will BUY most of the African electors — Idi in the lead. I am sure he will sell his vote for a bar of candy. They will also try and buy a few Asian votes.
So, to be on the SAFE SIDE Francis MUST create another 22 at least — given that a few will bear false promises (and a few more will sell their vote).
With 22 more electors Tagle could POPE. I will give you that.
So, YES/NO — Francis camp at least 12 votes down?
*******
Burke’s camp will not be able to get past the majority with a hardliner. They will continue to try and BUY votes but they will always fall short. BUT, PLENTY of votes NOW (before YOUR consistory) to BLOCK Tagle.
*******
YOU, I SEE, when looking at Conclave don’t look at it like an ELECTOR. I force myself to TRY and THINK like an elector (but not like Idi because his mind is BLANK).
Do electors REALLY care whether any of them were involved in COVER-UPs? YES/NO.
They have all been involved. Think about that.
They don’t see cover up as anything wrong. Yes, they understand that public won’t like it … but so …
*******
The Next Pope will NOT BE BLACK. Jeez. That is a given.
*******
A reclusive pope who is NOT CONSTANTLY trying to get as much attention will be a relief. I like the idea of Christoph. I think he will make a GOOD POPE. He has the experience and he is not stupid.
I would NOT rule out Farrell. Americans will play a BIG role in 2024.
*******
Not sure we can have a pope with a beard!
*******
I would like the CONCLAVE to be in November or for it to be a Christmas one. Later the better. I would like to write an AMBLING book by June/July. A late conclave will give me time.
Plus, in Oct. Francis will become 2nd oldest. I would like that.
OK. AS MANY YES/NO please. Thank you. This was fun.
I take it you are replying to deleted comments from a progressive?
Curious that you are saying here that it is a given that the next pope “will NOT BE BLACK” and yet more recently you tout the clearly black Cardinal Gregory as papabile.
Louis,
YOU CAUGHT ME OUT. I MESSED UP. Sorry.
When I said ‘BLACK’ — I was referring to AFRICAN cardinals. SORRY.
I will fix that.
I hadn’t given Gregory much thought at that point. I was going with Farrell. I need to fix the BLACK statements.
NO AFRICANS. NO AFRICANS. NO AFRICANS.
You are RIGHT. Thanks.
Sorry to be so late to comment on this interesting post (and its comments on your site).
I think it is interesting to consider how the Jesuits elect the “black pope” since they have long had the problem that their electors are scattered across the globe and do not necessarily have strong pre-existing relationships.
The process they follow is this:
1. The election takes place over a two week period in Rome, in the Jesuit complex (which consists of a dormitory, conference facility and attached church). The electors converge from all the various Jesuit provinces around the world.
2. In the first week the electors, who are all staying in the dormitory, spend their time at various conference presentations where they listen to the electors from different regions present their situation and ideas. Each group of regional electors makes these presentations. Also the Jesuit curia makes presentations to familiarize the electors with the view “from the top”
3. In the second week the election proper begins. The first 72 hours of the week are called “The Whispering”. During this period the electors adhere to a strict protocol:
a) Awake each morning, eat in silence in the attached dormitory, attend mass
b) spend all day in 1:1 conversations with other electors. Absolutely no 2:1 conversations are allowed. No direct politicking is allowed.
c) On Thursday the actual election itself commences. This is conducted under similar rules to the conclave election process (with all the same positions like scrutinizers, etc). 2/3 vote is required to win.
d) After the winner is determined, then the pope is consulted to approve or not.
What recommends this process to me is that it is specifically designed to aide an electorate which is far flung and diverse.
Richard Truely
Thanks for this. I had NO IDEA. Intriguing. Francis, obviously, knows this process well. If I ever get the time I would like to look into this. My kind of process. WOW. Thanks. I need to read this a few times more. All the best.
I am MORE AMUSED that you are so convinced that there will NOT be a conclave in 2024.
*****
So, are you implying that it is TRUE that Francis/Vatican is now using body doubles (made that much easier by the wheelchair & is limited speech) and that as such Francis can live for another 10 years?
Good to know. Won’t be the first time that the death of a pope was kept secret.
Thanks.
While I initially semi-welcomed the proposal from Melloni, upon further consideration, I can see another reason why this one-ballot-per-day proposal/wet dream/whatever might have unintended consequences.
Allowing the electors too much extra time between ballots runs the risk of a kingmaker (let’s say Cardinal Blase Cupich for the Americans, but there are obviously others for other blocs) putting pressure on “their” cardinals to elect a favored–**cough** progressive **cough**–candidate, scandalous pre-Conclave sound-bite or not.
The old saw “Idle hands are the Devil’s playground” can apply here. Even aged cardinals get bored and too much time between ballots may make the electors anxious to “Get on with it!” and elect the person the noisiest cardinal (and Cupich is definitely that!) is pressuring them to elect.
But of course this pope loves to stir the pot. So we’ll see what happens.
I don’t see a conclave happening in 2024, unless Francis has a sudden decline (which, at 87, is entirely possible). in health. It would be interesting to have a conclave in the middle of a Holy Year (the last time this happened was when Innocent XII died in 1700) when extra attention is already focused on Rome.
Mark, see ‘above’ or previous. Have to keep this SHORT. More next week.
Ubi periculum! Leaving the Vatican unattended for an extended period while the electors play strip poker in the Domus might not be a good thing. Actually IT MIGHT work to YOUR LIKING. The over 80, traditionalist could mount a COUP. The equivalent of Jan. 6 at the Vatican. (Yes, you did say ‘Devil’s playground’)
******
Amazed you don’t see the chances of a 2024 Conclave. I would like it to be around Christmas. With the pope elected on Boxing Day. They can’t vote on Dec. 25.
******
Prospero’s leak of a 2024 consistory MAKES SENSE. Francis does NOT have the votes. He needs another 20 at least who have SIGNED an oath.
His African contingent will abandon him. As will some Asians. And then we got the Burke camp.
OH! You a D.C. INSIDER know of the ‘Problem Solver Caucus’. I am sure we have a SIMILAR in the College. Reaching across the 2 camps.
Must run. TWO FUN POSTS to do. SMILE. Next week. Be good. Idle hands etc. Ubi periculum!
Ill play along too. And mostly I agree with Prospero here (whoda thunk it! 😀 )
1/ Ouellet? No… Canada is too geographically (and psychologically) close to the US. And the scandal here is enough to DQ him anyway. His chance was in 2013, and that has passed.
2/ O’Malley? No, he’s an American. Automatic DQ.
3/ Christoph? Which Christoph is this? Christophe Pierre, the apostolic nuncio to the US? If so, slight chance, but I’ll go with No here too. And if Christoph Schönborn?…a maybe.
4/ Farrell? No. Irish-born, but essentially American-educated. A more-qualified DQ, but still a DQ.
5/ Filoni? No – far too much of a bureaucrat in the Curia. And his being described as an “expert on China and the Middle East” isn’t helpful in this context.
6/ Sandri? No – I think a second Argentinian is unlikely. In the extreme. In fact, think the whole “New World” experiment is over with, with Francis.
7/ Comastri ? No – he’s already 80. That doesn’t DQ, but it’s very unlikely that the Conclave will elect one of the cardinals who aren’t physically present with them.
Mark,
GREAT to have YOUR feedback. As YOU KNOW I trust your insights. ‘Christoph’ was Schönborn. From what I can piece together ‘Prospero’ is his homeboy. So, he knows who I am talking about.
GLAD that HE gets a MAYBE from YOU. I think he is a REAL CONTENDER in 2024. Yes, 2024.
Mark … we have been through this. I, the LAST HOLDOUT, changed my mind. The Next Pope can be — MIGHT VERY WELL BE — American.
I favor O’Malley & Farrell. I am sure O’Malley, however, will have to SHAVE. But, think of this. He is the Gillette Cardinal! Gillette will pay him MILLIONS to shave!
My thoughts (& I am working diligently on a list): Christoph, Gillette O’Malley, Farrell & Ouellet. You know I like him. I have gone back and checked 2013 voting for him.
Yes, there are some others. ALL WHITE! Smile. I can say that …. SMILE.
Mark … you know I am off on a trip. So I will be DARK (or in my case even darker) till next week. Excuses. SMILE.
Thanks. Hearing from YOU always cheers me up. Not so Prospero … who hides behind his damn ALIAS. You know me. I live OPENLY on the Web — but then again I am a SAINT with nothing to hide. Not even my taxes. SMILE.
Cheers, Anura