Today’s HOT ‘Consumer Price Index’ (CPI) reading caught many by surprise, off guard and flat-footed. Not I. I expected it to be high. I know we still have inflation out there. I see it everyday.
I never bought into the rate cuts in March 2024 fallacy.
I have always been in the ‘higher for longer’ camp when it comes to interest rates.
But, the whole point of this post is that I predicted this HIGHER INFLATION scenario 2-years ago. SMILE. No wonder I do OK when it comes to investing. SMILE.
U.S. food prices, & with that U.S. core INFLATION, is bound to go up this Fall.
Think what this EXTREME WEATHER is doing to farming & crop production. I am surprised that we haven’t started seeing some price increases already. Some farms are scorched by the intense heat, others are under water. Either way it is not good for us consumers. FOOD PRICES HAVE TO GO UP. To think otherwise is to bury your head in the sand.
Then we have the never-ending Ukraine war & Russia’s latest ban on crop export. That too will hike up food prices.
So, those that think U.S. inflation is under control & on the way down are going to be in for a very rude awakening. Yes, it will take some time for these price increases to show up on inflation gauges such as ‘CPI’. It might take till nearly year end. Then we will AGAIN suddenly see a SPIKE in inflation & interest rates will AGAIN go up.
Click image to access excellent ‘forexlive.com‘ post that explains it all.
Yes, I thought the ‘jobs report’, i.e., the ‘non-farm payrolls’ to be precise, came out on the first Friday of each new month. I was WRONG.
I am not shocked, upset or embarrassed because until a year ago, when the Feds started hiking up interests in anger to fight the brutal inflation, I didn’t pay much attention to ‘CPI’ or the ‘jobs number’. We hadn’t had any interest rates hikes in years. I was not concerned. But, these days I am hugely interested — & of course, one way or another INVESTED — in Fed interest rates & what will happen to them. So, I eagerly await, each month CPI, jobs numbers, Fed Minutes, Fed statement etc. etc.
So, I was waiting to see the jobs number tomorrow.
Then, to my amazement, I heard on ‘CNBC‘ this morning that it will be NEXT Friday, March 10. I thought it was mistake. Then I heard it again. Then I Googled to make sure. Wow. It is next Friday, March 10, rather than tomorrow, March 3.
I, of course, had to know WHY? Come on. Cats have nothing on me when it comes to curiosity. That is how I found the above article. Glad I did. Check it out.
According to it: ” … Bureau of Labor Statistics releases non-farm payrolls on the fourth Friday following the week containing the 12th of a given month …“. Wow. Who knew.
While I was at it, I checked when we get the March CPI — Tuesday, March 14, 2023, at 8.30 am (Eastern).
I was taken aback. I think we paid $55 for the same size tree, from the SAME PLACE, last year. (We thought it was a 7′ tree. Proved to be 10′. We had to cut it to 9′. But, all the real trees we get are roughly that high — i.e., reach all the way to ceiling.)
The cashier, a young lady, was apologetic & said prices had gone UP this year.
WOW.
I went & checked 2019 prices. See image above. $35. Yes, a different place (& they are not doing it since COVID).
Yes, I know gas prices have gone up & trucking is an issue. But, this is crazy. I am sure that there is a fair amount of EXPLOITATION & profit taking here.
Remember, we are in RURAL N.H. — where they grow Christmas trees. Yes, I could go out in the woods & cut one. I might have to next year. WE DON’T PAY CITY PRICES.
This was sobering.
GLAD we only get ONE tree these days (as of 2 years ago). Two trees would have set us back $170!
Click to ENLARGE. $77.87 for 3.71 pounds of Turkey. $20.99 per pound.Click to ENLARGE. $13.13 for ONE Turkey drumstick. $8.99 per pound.Click image to access their Website. The ‘Co-Op Food Store’.
Don’t get me wrong. I LOVE this ‘Co-Op’. It is MY type of store. Has an amazing selection of great food — food I love. Lot of Indian & Mediterranean food. They invariably have a good selection of Samosa — & I am a sucker for samosas (despite them being high in carbs). SHOPPING for lunch at the ‘Co-Op’ is the highlight of our way too frequent trips to ‘Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center‘ (DMHC) (though, ALAS, none of them are for my benefit per se). They have always been EXPENSIVE & I joke that while I love it, I am glad I don’t live close by because shopping there would bankrupt me (especially their cheese prices).
Well, these two items today were an EYE OPENER.
Wow.
Obviously SOMEONE is paying these crazy prices.
Guess who?
Mainly those that work at DMHC — doctors, in particular.
ENOUGH SAID.
Guess who PAYS THEM?
ENOUGH SAID.
And to think we have kids who go to school, in the U.S., most likely even in Lebanon, HUNGRY.
No, I didn’t buy either of these. I couldn’t afford that. AMZN shares are WAY DOWN. SMILE.
I bought two spinach Samosas for $8.99. That was expensive, BUT …. I have to eat. SMILE. I only ate one. Saved the other for later.
Maybe I really should have heeded the wishes of my ADOPTIVE PARENTS. I should have become a doctor. Well, I could NOT have. I am not smart enough by a quarter. SMILE.
Click to ENLARGE & read here. Link to original ‘CNBC’ coverage.
This I learnt today had been discussed in “AT&T’s” earnings conference call last week. I don’t take much interest in AT&T & as such had not heard about it until this afternoon. It came up again on CNBC relative to the extent of the current inflation crunch. This was scary. It made me do a second take. People running the risk of losing their cell phone service — because they can no longer afford the payments? Yikes. This is BAD.
Yes, I was aware (& had been anticipating) a sharp increase in foreclosures, car loan defaults & credit card delinquency. But, I had NOT given any thought to phone bills — in particular cell phone bills. This is serious.
Of course it makes sense. If people are juggling their money to pay for the higher food & gas prices they will have to cut some corners. Wow. I feel real bad. And soon electric rates will go up too — especially in New Hampshire. This will soon start becoming a living nightmare.
Click to ENLARGE & read here. Link to original ‘MDI’ article.
4 pictures from my visit to Acadia in February 2022 when I had the Park all to myself some of the time!
Click images to ENLARGE & Enjoy.
First & foremost I have to say that I take these numbers with a large grain of salt. Unlike with some of the other National Parks, e.g., Shenandoah, all the entrances to Acadia NP are not gated or monitored. So, it is difficult to get an accurate count. I suspect that these numbers are primarily based on the number of vehicles that passed through the ‘Sand Beach Entrance Station‘. That provides comparative data, BUT is by NO MEANS even close to an accurate gauge of the number of people visiting Acadia. But, just lets go with the comparative data, 2021 vs 2022.
Last year was a RECORD YEAR for Acadia. And we know why that was COVID or to be more precise the escape & relief from COVID. In Acadia it isn’t too difficult to maintain social distancing — even with record crowds.
This year 3 factors, two interrelated are at play which would easily explain the 8% drop.
Gas prices.
Inflation which is hitting wallets & impacting vacation plans.
People have started flying again in anger (or did so till June) & as such were able to travel to other parks.
So, all in all, this is NOT a big deal. Some will argue that a 8% drop was good given that most don’t want to see Acadia congested to the brim.
This news of ‘Café Miranda‘ bothers me on two fronts.
It was my favorite eatery, by far, in Rockland (ME) — & had been so for nearly two decades. I stumbled upon it, serendipitously, on my second visit to Rockland. That was in 2003. Starting then, for the next 7 to 8 years we used to visit Rockland, for 3 to 4 days a time, 3 to 4 times a year. We used to eat there multiple times each visit. I know that we have even been there twice in the day. It was definitely my kind of place. Eclectic menu heavy on Mediterranean & Middle-East offerings, exotic décor inside & cute, modern art displays (creatively lit) at night. I loved that place. So, I am disappointed. [Strange. My second favorite eatery in Rockland, within 400-yards on ‘Miranda’, ‘Amalfi’ also closed down — but that was a long time ago.]
The second reason that this bothers me is that the rationale seems incongruous. You really should read the interview with the owner (2nd image above). Parts of it does not make sense. Here is the most pertinent statement from it:
Click to ENLARGE & read here. Link to full coverage above.
He definitely knew his stuff.
They were mega-popular & there should have been no shortage of business during the Summer/Fall months.
They weren’t outlandishly expensive — but they weren’t cheap either. Their prices were ‘up there’ by Maine standards.
So, what gives?
All of the restaurants (& umpteen fast food joints) in the Rockland area are NOT closing. So, why Café Miranda? That is the part that I am having trouble understanding.
He says the solution would have been to increase prices.
Well, I am sure he has been increasing prices — especially of late to keep up with inflation. Had he got to the point that demand had started to drop — because inflation & gas prices are hitting wallets hard. Just seems strange.
