Tag Archives: stock market

Stock Market’s Irrational Exuberance Is Unwarranted — Reminds Me Of Y2K & The ‘NASDAQ’ Crash.

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by Anura Guruge
on April 11, 2024

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Click to ENLARGE. Base chart from ‘MarketWatch‘ (of course, of course).

I am NOW truly a senior, with over 45 years of SOLID (& often painful) stock market experience. I remember living through the Y2K (i.e., year 2000) NASDAQ crash. I was fully invested then, nearly all of it on the NASDAQ. DITTO, today. SMILE.

I, as I often state, ONLY invest in things I understand — & that tends to be (High) TECH. I have been in TECH most of the last 40 years — & I AM NOT COMPLAINING. SMILE.

Today was a good day. Nah! That is a lie. Today was a GREAT DAY. SMILE.

This has been a good year. SMILE. The last 12 months has been good.

But, this is NOT RIGHT. There is too much uncalled for irrational exuberance. The NASDAQ should NOT have gone up 1.7% today. Not right. Fundamentals don’t support that.

I am PREDICTING that we will have a MEANINGFUL PULLBACK in Tech soon — before June. That has to be the case. This is not right.

Mark my words (again). SMILE.

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That ‘Good Friday’ Is NOT A Federal Holiday In The U.S. Still Confounds Me — After Nearly 40-Years.

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by Anura Guruge
on March 29, 2024

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Click to ENLARGE. Click for ‘Google‘.

I just can’t get used to this. The MOST IMPORTANT day in Christianity and it is NOT a holiday.

I get caught out each year BECAUSE the STOCK MARKET is closed. My life revolves around the stock market because I TRADE every day. SMILE. Terrible thing … addiction. I am addicted to trading. It could be worse. I could addicted to something that costs money.

I saw mail being delivered. I was taken aback — though we now have USPS parcel delivery on Sundays thanks to Amazon.

But, I had to check. Good Friday is NOT a federal holiday. How can that be.

Growing up, in Ceylon (now Sri Lanka) & in the U.K., both Good Friday & Easter Monday were holidays. 4-day holiday.

SCARY! SCARY! SCARY! Sell … Sell … Sell. I Just Saw Google Stock Options For 2126 — Yes, 103-Years OUT!

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by Anura Guruge
on February 23, 2023

Click to ENLARGE. From ‘Fidelity’ through my account.

Kid you NOT. That is an actual screenshot of what I saw … TODAY.

So, after December 2025, the next options are in 2126. I am sure I will NOT be around. That, however, did NOT stop me from TRYING to get some. 103-years out. Beyond a SUPER LEAP. Wow.

Scary. Is the market THAT bad that we need to be looking 103-years out.

Think about it. WOW.

SCARY.

When Will ‘Mom & Pop’ Retail Investors Stop Falling For The Recent ‘Head Fakes’ On High-Tech Stock In Today’s BEAR Stock Market?

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by Anura Guruge
on September 27, 2022

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Click to ENLARGE. Base chart from ‘marketwatch.com‘ — of course.

This UP first thing in the morning & THEN rapidly falling soon after to end the day negative has been happening consistently for the last few weeks.

Newbie, amateur investors fall for it each & every time it happens. They think, naively, that the market is turning & that they better jump in before the stock goes up too much. They get fooled each time.

No question, BIG high-tech stocks like AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, NVDA have been beaten down tremendously. Compared to what they were, even 6 months ago, they are dirt cheap. So, this is NOT a bad time to start picking up some of these. The problem is we are not even close to a market bottom yet! That is the crux. We still have some ways to go down yet!

The SCARIEST Indicator As To How Low U.S. Stocks Could Fall — Amazon 2025 Options Stop At $200!

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by Anura Guruge
on September 23, 2022

Click to ENLARGE. From ‘Fidelity’ through my account.
Click to ENLARGE. From ‘Fidelity’ through my account.

These are called ‘Leap Options’. They go out 2-years and come out around the 3rd week in September each year.

I was expecting them, & went looking for them today. I expected to see option prices at least as high as $200. NOPE. I tripled checked. Option pricing stops at $200. Yes, that is $86 higher than today’s closing price (viz., $113.78). Yes, that will be a 75% increase as of today — BUT that really isn’t that much, based on history, for AMZN. That is 846-days away — 2.3 years out.

What this says is that BASED on current market sentiments the option pricing folks do NOT expect AMZN to increase by more than 75%. That is SCARY.

As the second image shows this is very different to the pricing for January 2024. Those go up to $270. But, those prices were set in 2021.

What this says is that market sentiment has really soured. SCARY.

We Could See A HUGE Relief Rally On The Stock Market Wednesday, June 15, 2022, IF Fed Only Hikes Rates 0.50%.

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by Anura Guruge
on June 13, 2022

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Click to ENLARGE. Base chart (as ever) is from ‘MarketWatch.com‘ (with thanks).

The last few months have been painful but some of us old folks have lived through similar (if not worse). So, I no longer panic. Most of all I no longer sell in a panic. I will ride it out, just like I did 2008 to 2012.

These are extraordinary times. Inflation is brutal. The Fed left it way too long to stop buying treasuries (to boost bond rates) & raise rates. Now they don’t have any choice but to raise rates — though I am sure that raising rates alone will not curb inflation, in a hurry, this time around. A unique set of criteria — supply chain disruption key among them. Inflation will continue to rise as long as we have supply issues. Moreover, we are also faced by a labor shortage. That means wages will go up. That always drives up inflation. So, I do NOT see a short-term fix. I am ready & prepared for prolonged pain for the remainder of this year.

From what I can see, the worst is yet to come! [SORRY]

That said there are quite a few, as of today, THINKING that the Fed will hike rates on Wednesday by 0.75% or even a 1%. That would be quite the thing. If they do we will see another HUGE drop in the market. Investors will FLEE. We will see even further tightening of ‘margin debt’ forcing folks to sell more shares to cover their debt.

BUT, if the Fed only hikes rates 0.50% many will feel a sense of relief. A mistaken belief that inflation may have peaked. (It hasn’t.) But, we will see a HUGE relief rally. But, it won’t, alas, last. [SORRY]